Way of the World..

On Wednesdays my partner and I often meet up for a midweek drink with friends. Nothing unusual there.

This week we all had one thing in common - every one of us was complaining about stressed and overworked we were and how our many and diverse organisations are short of resources while expecting staff to do more and/or meet ever more unlikely targets.

Now, my friends and my partner work in a range of organisations from small law firms through large banks to local authorities but the similarities were uncanny.

I have another friend who has a senior position in a Conservative-controlled County Council. His tales of life within that authority would astonish those who are ignorant of what goes on in the local Government universe. His experience, which seems to be the same across the private sector too, is that organisations are obsessed with keeping costs down presumably because in a low-inflation world, they can't raise prices which is the other obvious mechanism.

The key area that all organisations target is called "admin" or "business support" or whatever. It is regarded as an "overhead" and is cut to the bone. Unfortunately, cutting out the admin people doesn't actually cut out the admin any more than outsourcing a function will make it more efficient. Without the admin resource, it takes longer for staff to do the routine functions so productivity and often profitability falls.

In the past twenty or thirty years, "bureaucracy" has become a dirty word - I wonder how many people believe that Government is just like "Yes Minister" - but all the successful societies have maintained a bureaucratic infrastructure from the Roman Empire onward. Indeed, one might argue that it was the administrative function that was the backbone of the British Empire.

There is of course a problem when bureaucracy becomes self-perpetuating. My friend at the County Council tells me that they have imposed a whole new series of bureaucratic procedures because they got rid of all the admin staff...

Polls..

In the world of politics, this morning's ICM poll in the Guardian has cut last month's Conservative lead in half to 5%. The Tories poll 37%, Labour 32% and the Liberal Democrats 22%.

Over on politicalbetting.com, the activists have been up early ranting and raving as per usual. One of the views expressed on the site is that Labour and Liberal Democrat tactics aimed at attacking "Cameron" rather than the Conservatives is a mistake.

I disagree for a number of reasons. Primarily, the Conservatives have put up few, if any, meaningful policies - why should they? We are still at least two years from an election - and so what is there to attack except the "hug-a-hoodie" type pronouncements of their leader. I am no fan of David Cameron - I think he is a boy sent on a man's errand. In the heat of a General Election campaign, it will need more than just PR skills to convince the electorate he is a potential Prime Minister. There have aqlready been signs of a brittleness which won't help if and when Labour really do turn their fire on him.

I wonder sometimes about the Conservatives. In the autumn of 2003, they were staring into the abyss and made the totally sensible decision to dump IDS and let Michael Howard take them through the election keeping the margin of defeat as low as possible. Once Howard went, the Tories had a choice between a robust right-winger in David Davis and a Blair-esque PR man like Cameron and they chose Cameron just at a time when the electorate has tired of spin rather than substance in its politics. I think history will show that the day they elected Cameron was also the day they threw away the 2009 election.

For the Liberal Democrats, 22% is a good figure, close to the 2005 election result though many of their MPs will be under pressure from the Tories next time.

The next key event is the departure of Blair and (presumably) the accession of Gordon Brown to the Premiership (so to speak). I'm not sure how Brown will be as PM but my guess is we will see a change of style and it will be a more collegiate and consensual style of leadership just as Major's was after Thatcher in 1990. This may actually help Labour recover some ground.

Until a couple of weeks ago, I thought the most likely outcome of the next election was a Conservative minority Government. I now think that prospect is receding and Labour will get a fourth term, albeit with a small majority.

Lingfield Wednesday

I'm off to Lingfield tomorrow for an afternoon's National Hunt racing. The highlight is the chasing debut of My Way de Solzen in the Beginners chase at 12.45.

The best bet may be kept to the concluding Bumper at 3.30 where Alan King runs two. The stable pick looks to be Katess but I'm going for a little each way bet on Adorabella.

Look out for a preview on talkinghorses.com

Welcome to the World of Stodge !!

Yes, I've joined the world of blogging.

More details to follow as I get the site up and running.