Polls..

In the world of politics, this morning's ICM poll in the Guardian has cut last month's Conservative lead in half to 5%. The Tories poll 37%, Labour 32% and the Liberal Democrats 22%.

Over on politicalbetting.com, the activists have been up early ranting and raving as per usual. One of the views expressed on the site is that Labour and Liberal Democrat tactics aimed at attacking "Cameron" rather than the Conservatives is a mistake.

I disagree for a number of reasons. Primarily, the Conservatives have put up few, if any, meaningful policies - why should they? We are still at least two years from an election - and so what is there to attack except the "hug-a-hoodie" type pronouncements of their leader. I am no fan of David Cameron - I think he is a boy sent on a man's errand. In the heat of a General Election campaign, it will need more than just PR skills to convince the electorate he is a potential Prime Minister. There have aqlready been signs of a brittleness which won't help if and when Labour really do turn their fire on him.

I wonder sometimes about the Conservatives. In the autumn of 2003, they were staring into the abyss and made the totally sensible decision to dump IDS and let Michael Howard take them through the election keeping the margin of defeat as low as possible. Once Howard went, the Tories had a choice between a robust right-winger in David Davis and a Blair-esque PR man like Cameron and they chose Cameron just at a time when the electorate has tired of spin rather than substance in its politics. I think history will show that the day they elected Cameron was also the day they threw away the 2009 election.

For the Liberal Democrats, 22% is a good figure, close to the 2005 election result though many of their MPs will be under pressure from the Tories next time.

The next key event is the departure of Blair and (presumably) the accession of Gordon Brown to the Premiership (so to speak). I'm not sure how Brown will be as PM but my guess is we will see a change of style and it will be a more collegiate and consensual style of leadership just as Major's was after Thatcher in 1990. This may actually help Labour recover some ground.

Until a couple of weeks ago, I thought the most likely outcome of the next election was a Conservative minority Government. I now think that prospect is receding and Labour will get a fourth term, albeit with a small majority.